Expedient Consultants

KV's ChanakyaShaala

Fed Rate Hike or China?

Will she or Won't She? Your guess is as good as Ours. Yellen may hike rates in September, but in one of her previous statements, she has stated that Fed will hike rates in 2015 subject to Greece/ China. More important of the two is China. If Chinese problem continues, there may not be a rate hike in 2015. If China settles, Fed rate hike may have already been already factored in by the Stock Markets Worldwide. Talking particularly about US Markets in the short term, we feel that next 15 days may well be the Zone to buy. In short, Chinese problem is a bigger threat than Fed rate hike. If Chinese problem continues, Fed will re-adjust its policy to soothe Stock Market. As the Markets have already fallen, Buy before Fed decision as the markets have a more than 75% probability of seeing better levels on Dow than it is at present. Target upside? 4.5 to 7.5%. 

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